Thursday, October 29, 2009

Notre Dame now chasing Michigan for top winning percentage

Here's something for Notre Dame fans to sink their teeth into:

On Wednesday, the NCAA officially began its investigation of the (sc)UM football team regarding allegations that coach Rich Rodriguez and his staff surpassed the allotted mandatory workout hours (Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis never will be accused of over-working his troops because that would mean pushing back his dinner reservation, which is why his getting fired would be the worst thing for the South Bend economy).

Let's suppose the violations are so egregious that Michigan has to forfeit all its win under Rodriguez, who is in his second season in Ann Arbor (three last season and five so far this year).

That means that Michigan would lose at least eight victories, and Notre Dame would jump back over the Wolverines into its rightful place as the winningest program in NCAA history, at least in terms of winning percentage.

The NCAA, of course, will not hand down such a harsh penalty even if Michigan is found to be guilty of the charges, as it likely would determine the violations to be secondary in nature. But we can all fantasize.

Anyway, we do keep track of such things as winning percentage. A few years ago Michigan overtook Notre Dame in winning percentage due to the Fighting Irish's extended run of mediocrity.

Here's how the schools stacked up at the start of the season:

1. Michigan -- .73982 872-295-36
2. Notre Dame- .73639 831-289-42

Here's how the schools stack up now:

1. Michigan -- .73905 877-298-36
2. Notre Dame- .73625 836-286-42

The winning percentages of the Wolverines (5-3 this season) and Fighting Irish (5-2) have dropped slightly.

Michigan finishes at Illinois, home for Purdue and at Wisconsin and Ohio State. We could certainly see the Wolverines losing their final two games and a bowl contest, which would leave them at 7-6 for the season. Their winning percentage would be:

1. Michigan -- .73766 879-301-32

If the Fighting Irish were to run the table (Washington State, Navy, at Pittsburgh, UConn, at Stanford) and win a bowl game to finish 11-2, they would virtually catch Michigan if the Wolverines finished 7-6:

2. Notre Dame -- .73761 842-286-42. (However, ND would have to win at Pittsburgh and likely beat a higher ranked bowl opponent).

A 10-3 finish (lose at Pittsburgh and win a bowl game, or win at Pittsburgh and lose a bowl game, would leave this:

2. Notre Dane -- .7367 841-287-42

A 9-4 finish (lose at Pittsburgh and lose a bowl game - we're assuming ND will win its other four games); would leave this:

2. Notre Dame -- .73588 840-288-42

Here's a sobering stat for Irish fans, since Lou Holtz went 11-1 in 1993, Notre Dams is just 113-75, a winning percentage barely over 60.

Doing some quick math reveals that ND had an all-time mark of 723-211-42 following the 1993 season for a winning percentage of .762. In just 16 seasons, the Irish have fallen from .762 to .736

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